2026 FIFA World Cup Simulation (August 2025 Edition)

As the 2025–26 European club seasons have just begun or are about to begin, let’s see where the FIFA World Cup Qualification Process is as of now. Then, I will use my knowledge of each of these national teams to determine what the field of 48 teams at next summer’s World Cup would look like. Finally, I’ll conduct a World Cup Draw to create groups and predict the World Cup from there.

This is all for fun so if you disagree with any of the decisions made, I’m curious to know which national teams you see qualifying and advancing to various stages of the World Cup. If enough people enjoy this, I may do another edition after qualifying ends and before the draw happens!

What We Know So Far (As of August 13, 2025)

OFC

New Zealand already qualified; New Caledonia entered into Inter Continental Playoff

AFC

Australia, Japan, Jordan, Iran, South Korea, Uzbekistan qualified after 3rd round

4th Round in October 2025

Group A: Qatar, UAE, Oman

Group B: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Indonesia

Top 2 automatically qualify; Runners up go into Asian playoff before Inter Continental Playoff

CAF

Group winners qualify automatically; Runners up go through intercontinental playoff

Group A: 1st Egypt, 2nd Burkina Faso

Group B: 1st Congo DR, 2nd Senegal

Group C: 1st South Africa, 2nd Rwanda

(Nigeria within striking distance of 2nd but lacking in points)

Group D: 1st Cape Verde, 2nd Cameroon

Group E: 1st Morocco, 2nd Tanzania

Group F: 1st Cote D’Ivoire, 2nd Gabon

Group G: 1st Algeria, 2nd Mozambique

Group H: 1st Tunisia, 2nd Namibia

Group I: 1st Ghana, 2nd Comoros

CONCACAF

Aside from the Dominican Republic and Guadeloupe, all teams that qualified for the Gold Cup are still in World Cup contention. Bermuda and Nicaragua are the only ones that did not qualify for the Gold Cup still in the running for next summer’s showcase.

Group A: Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala, Suriname

Group B: Jamaica, Curacao, Trinidad and Tobago, Bermuda

Group C: Costa Rica, Honduras, Haiti, Nicaragua

Group A: Germany, Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Luxembourg (starts September)

Group B: Switzerland, Sweden, Slovenia, Kosovo (starts September)

Group C: Denmark, Greece, Scotland, Belarus (starts September)

Group D: France, Ukraine, Iceland, Azerbaijan (starts September)

Group E: Spain, Turkey, Georgia, Bulgaria (starts September)

Group F: Portugal, Hungary, Ireland, Armenia (starts September)

Group G: 1st Finland 2nd Netherlands 3rd Poland

Group H: 1st Bosnia 2nd Austria 3rd Romania

Group I: 1st Norway 2nd Israel 3rd Italy

Group J: 1st North Macedonia 2nd Wales 3rd Belgium

Group K: 1st England 2nd Albania 3rd Serbia

Group L: 1st Czechia 2nd Croatia 3rd Montenegro

The 12 winners qualify for the World Cup; 12 group runners up and four best Nations League group winners will go into playoffs; 4 playoff winners qualify for the World Cup.

Simulating the Remaining World Cup Qualifiers

For years, it felt like restricting Africa to just five spots was unfair given the region’s growing football quality. Four years after Morocco put Africa in a World Cup semifinal, they have nine spots to vie for. Image Credit: CNN.

AFC’s 2 remaining spots (and intercontinental spot)

Group A: Qatar wins, UAE into AFC 5th qualifying round

Group B: Saudi Arabia wins, Iraq into AFC 5th qualifying round

Intercontinental: Not much to split between UAE or Iraq, but I’ll go with Iraq. Graham Arnold to lead the Lions of Mesopotamia into this stage.

CAF

Group winners: Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Morocco, Cote D’Ivoire, Algeria, Tunisia, Ghana

I went with the more experienced World Cup qualifying nations over the last few cycles to win their groups, with the biggest drought ending here being South Africa’s from the World Cup they hosted in 2010.

Moving on into the Second Round (Top Four Group Runners Up for Intercontinental Spot)

Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Cape Verde, Gabon

These are four national teams that have already accumulated a lot of points and could add to their totals. Any of them could make it out of this gauntlet, but the side I think has the most quality is DR Congo.

CONCACAF

Jamaica’s sole World Cup appearance came in 1998. This might be the Reggae Boyz’ best chance to end that drought. Image Credit: Jamaican Football Federation Website.

If Jamaica was in Group A instead of Panama, it would be an even more interesting group. Jamaica can count themselves fortunate to be in Group B instead, where they will join Panama and Costa Rica in qualifying for the World Cup directly.

The two best runners up will qualify for the intercontinental playoffs, and Honduras out of Group C is a solid choice since they are considerably better than the other teams in that group. Curacao is probably the most inspired choice out of B, but I’m banking on Group A yielding enough points for their worthy runner up to have a shot. That team could be the Gold Cup feel good story of Guatemala.

CONMEBOL

The 4 point gap Colombia has on 7th place should be enough to protect Los Cafeteros as they join Uruguay and Paraguay in automatic qualification.

Venezuela and Bolivia both have difficult fixtures to close their qualifying, but I’ll give the edge to Venezuela to be the last CONMEBOL nation to make their World Cup debut.

UEFA

Automatic qualifiers (group winners): Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, France, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Austria, Norway, Belgium, England, Croatia

Group Runners Up: Slovakia, Sweden, Scotland, Ukraine, Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Italy, Wales, Serbia, Czechia

UEFA Nations League Best Four Remaining: Israel, Greece, Slovenia, Georgia

So of the latter 16 national teams, the three I have the most faith will qualify in this structure would be Sweden, Turkey, and Italy. The four spot is tough but I went with my gut, and maybe it’s because it’s been a while since my last meal, but I went with Hungary. Seriously though, they’re starting to accumulate more depth and high-end talent.

Intercontinental

Well known for producing elite baseball players, this might be Venezuela’s finest football generation. Image Credit: These Football times

New Caledonia (152), Iraq (58), DR Congo (61), Guatemala (100), Honduras (66), Venezuela (46)

The seeding will be based on FIFA rankings, which I’ve provided in parentheses.

In this exercise, Venezuela will have a bye to face the winner of DR Congo vs Guatemala.

Iraq will have a bye to face the winner of Honduras vs New Caledonia.

DR Congo and Honduras will advance from these first encounters.

I’m not saying the rankings are the be all and end all, but Venezuela and Iraq will win the last two spots. If DR Congo were to face Iraq, I would’ve went with them over Iraq.

World Cup Draw

Pot A: Argentina (1), Spain (2), France (3), England (4), Brazil (5), Portugal (6), Netherlands (7), Belgium (8), Germany (9), Mexico (13/host), USA (15/host), Canada (28/host)

Pot B: Croatia (10), Italy (11), Morocco (12), Colombia (14), Uruguay (16), Japan (17), Senegal (18), Switzerland (19), Iran (20), Denmark (21), Austria (22), South Korea (23)

Pot C: Australia (24), Ecuador (25), Turkey (27), Sweden (29), Panama (30), Norway (33), Egypt (34), Algeria (36), Poland (37), Hungary (38), Costa Rica (40), Paraguay (43)

Pot D: Cote D’Ivoire (45), Venezuela (46), Tunisia (49), Cameroon (51), Qatar (53), Uzbekistan (55), South Africa (56), Iraq (58), Saudi Arabia (59), Jordan (64), Jamaica (70), New Zealand (82)

Only South Africa (2010) and Qatar (2022) have failed to get out of their group as World Cup host nations, so for Canada, Mexico, and USA, the pressure is on to at a minimum not put themselves on that dubious list.

Group A: Mexico (confirmed), Italy, Sweden, New Zealand

Prediction: 1st Italy 2nd Mexico 3rd Sweden 4th New Zealand

Mexico rarely tops their world cup groups. They could beat either Italy or Sweden, but I don’t see them beating both.

Group B: Canada (confirmed), Denmark, Algeria, Qatar

Prediction: 1st Denmark 2nd Algeria 3rd Canada 4th Qatar

Canada will have a tough time getting out of the group for the first time in their World Cup history, but luckily for them, 3rd place teams can advance in this format.

Group C: Argentina, Japan, Costa Rica, South Africa

Prediction: Same order

Group D: USA (confirmed), Colombia, Poland, Tunisia

Prediction: 1st Colombia 2nd USA 3rd Poland 4th Tunisia

Like Mexico, USA might have enough in the tank to beat one of Colombia or Poland, and Tunisia could be tricky too. Colombia has enough talent and class to top this group.

Group E: Brazil, Croatia, Turkey, Uzbekistan

Prediction: Same order (Though Brazil will be wary of Croatia after 2022).

If anyone can defy time to represent Croatia at one more world cup, it’s the ageless legend Luka Modric. Image Credit: TNT Sports

Group F: France, Uruguay, Hungary, Cameroon

Prediction: 1st Uruguay 2nd France 3rd Cameroon 4th Hungary

Uruguay has dark horse potential with a solid foundation of talented players under Marcelo Bielsa, so they could tie or even beat France to top the group.

Group G: Netherlands, Senegal, Australia, Jamaica

Prediction: 1st Netherlands 2nd Australia 3rd Senegal 4th Jamaica

Jamaica could surprise, but Australia and Senegal realistically will be battling for second. Netherlands could be caught out, but I’ll put them top.

Group H: Portugal, South Korea, Panama, Venezuela

Prediction: 1st Portugal 2nd South Korea 3rd Venezuela 4th Panama

Group I: England, Morocco, Paraguay, Jordan

Prediction: 1st Morocco 2nd England 3rd Paraguay 4th Jordan

Whether in the 2010 World Cup or the 2016 Euros, England can be prone to a slow start and finishing 2nd in the group with a strong rival like Morocco present.

Group J: Spain, Iran, Norway, Cote D’Ivoire

Prediction: 1st Spain 2nd Norway 3rd Cote D’Ivoire 4th Iran (2nd-4th could go either way)

Group K: Germany, Switzerland, Egypt, Iraq

Prediction: 1st Germany 2nd Egypt 3rd Switzerland 4th Iraq

It’s not just the top spot where there will be some switches in the order. With Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, Egypt have the ability to take some points off of the other strong teams in this group.

Group L: Belgium, Austria, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia

Prediction: 1st Belgium 2nd Ecuador 3rd Saudi Arabia 4th Austria

I tried to balance a few twists here and there with largely how I think it’ll likely pan out

If only two clubs were to advance from each group, it’s hard to see Canada advancing. But in this format plus playing at home, they’ve got a great chance! Image Credit: Major League Soccer.

8 Best 3rd Place Teams:

Sweden (A), Canada (B), Poland (D), Turkey (E), Senegal (G), Paraguay (I), Cote D’Ivoire (J), and Switzerland (K)

Fans of the 32 team World Cup format may not like 3rd place teams advancing, but when you look at those 8 nations listed, surely most of them don’t look out of place in the knockout stage.

Round of 32: Winners in Bold (from here on out)

Winner Group E (Brazil) vs Third A/B/C/D/F (Sweden; A)

Winner Group I (Morocco) vs Third C/D/F/G/H (Poland; D)

Runner Up Group A (Mexico) vs Runner Up Group B (Algeria)

Even if it takes the expanded format, El Tri fans will welcome “el quinto partido” any way they can get it. Even if it results in “only” another trip to the Round of 16.

Winner Group F (Uruguay) vs Runner Up Group C (Japan)

Marcelo Bielsa demands a lot of his players in the Uruguay national team, but maybe his hard-nosed approach can maximize their talent. Image Credit: Buenos Aires Times.

Runner Up Group K (Egypt) vs Runner Up Group L (Ecuador)

Winner Group H (Portugal) vs Runner Up Group J (Norway)

Cristiano Ronaldo vs Erling Haaland? Not too bad for the first-ever Round of 32.

Winner Group D (Colombia) vs Third B/E/F/I/J (Canada; B)

If Canada do get out of their group, they’re probably going against a strong opponent right out of the gate. That’s likely where the journey ends.

Winner Group G (Netherlands) vs Third A/E/H/I/J (Turkey; E)

An early exit for one of the bigger sides is on the cards, and Netherlands have taken one recently at the Euros. It could happen again here.

Argentina vs France produced one of the best World Cup finals we’ve ever seen in 2022. Image Credit: NBC Chicago.

Winner Group C (Argentina) vs Runner Up Group F (France)

A 2022 World Cup Final rematch in the first-ever World Cup Round of 32!

Runner Up Group E (Croatia) vs Runner Up Group I (England)

England get some revenge for 2018 here in one of the more even matchups.

Winner Group A (Italy) vs Third Group C/E/F/H/I (Paraguay; I)

Some might argue I was generous to put Italy winning their group considering their failure to qualify for either of the last two World Cups. How about Italy as an upset for a compromise.

Winner Group L (Belgium) vs Third Group E/H/I/J/K (Switzerland; K)

Winner Group J (Spain) vs Runner Up Group H (South Korea)

Spain are viewed as the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup not just because of their Euro 2024 triumph but how much depth they have in world class talent. Image Credit: New York Times.

Runner Up Group D (USA) vs Runner Up Group G (Australia)

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Australia won this given USA have been frustrating since the 2022 World Cup. But even finishing runner up in USA’s group will net them a home game and that can be enough to will them one round further.

Winner Group B (Denmark) vs 3rd Group E/F/G/I/J (Senegal; G)

Winner Group K (Germany) vs 3rd Group D/E/I/J/L(Cote D’Ivoire; J)

Round of 16

Brazil vs Morocco

Mexico vs Uruguay

Ecuador vs Portugal (Ecuador could be a dark horse!)

Colombia vs Turkey

France vs England

Paraguay vs Belgium

Spain vs USA

Mexico and USA expect to go further than the Round of 16 as World Cup veterans and hosts, but they need to prove they can take out one of the big dogs.

Senegal vs Germany (Africa is getting stronger; back-to-back tournaments with a QF team!)

Uruguay and Spain are strong teams with credentials to go far in the World Cup, so that should be that for the World Cup hosts.

Quarterfinals

Brazil vs Uruguay

Ecuador vs Colombia

France vs Belgium

Spain vs Senegal

Colombia had a great showing at the latest Copa America, and it has Los Cafeteros and their supporters dreaming of a deep run in 2026. Image Credit: Copa America website.

Looks like a South America vs Europe final, but involving which sides?

Semifinals

Uruguay vs Colombia

France vs Spain

Lifting the trophy at MetLife Stadium…Spain wins their Second World Cup Title!

Feel free to send me your World Cup simulation, predictions, what I got right or wrong in the comments or on Social Media